With an absolute whirlwind if a week and a half, Packer Nation is distraught and torn at the seams. As Franchise Legend and Icon, Aaron Rodgers, allegedly is at wits end with the organization and no longer wants to be part of the team. Rodgers has not come out personally to quell the rumors, and on the other hand has not acknowledged them as well. The breaking news has rocked the small fan-owned franchise to its core, with most of the news being very unsettling. He’s rumored to be “willing to retire”, “telling Free Agents he’s not playing in GB in 2021”, and/or “He wants Guntekunst (Packer’s GM) to step down.” All of these rumors have been brought to light by national sources such as Adam Schefter of ESPN, Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports, with additional local reporters like Rob Demovsky and Bob McGinn also contributing, amongst others.
I think the best avenue in this situation is to lay out the reports in a timeline fashion. Everyone knows Aaron Rodgers has had some cryptic conversations from post championship game presser, to his appearances on the Pat Macafee Show. The first true report came the opening night of the draft from Adam Schefter who, on ESPN, mentioned that he is “disgruntled and has told teammates he does not plan to return to the team.” While shocking, some of this still could be expected due to the nature of the draft in 2020, and his previously mentioned “cryptic comments.” Also, important to note that Schefter has come out since and said that this report was an “accumulation of rumors” heard since the season and not based on a direct team source or one from Rodger’s camp. It was noted as well by Schefter that teams reached out regarding Aaron’s availability, but no offers were made and it was quickly shot down. Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports, then reports the fracture in the organization is due to GM Gutekunst and that the QB won’t return if Gute does. Next up is Mike Garafolo of NFL Network who drops in that “Rodgers has been telling Free Agents he does not plan on being with the team in 2021.” If were keeping track, that is a lot of “he-said, she-said” in a matter of less than a week. Not all reports are degrading to Rodgers as former teammates-turned-media-members John Kuhn and James Jones have come to the icon’s defense stating, “they think the bridge can be repaired, and that Aaron could still return in 2021.” While another one of his good friends and former teammate in AJ Hawk has speculated similarly. Head coach LaFleur has also stated he cannot imagine a Packer season without Rodgers at the helm, while the Gutekunst and the front office have stated that they are still committed to Aaron and have no plans to move on from him. The entire situation is cloudy, and it’s very difficult to tell what’s true and what’s not.
Before we speculate on what is going to happen, and the rumors that are out there I think it’s important to take a look at his contract. Using Spotrac I pulled most of Rodgers’ contract info for 2021 and 2022. He currently has a cap hit for 2021 of ~$37.2 million, which in terms of Dead Cap (if he’s moved or terminated) accelerates to ~$38.4 million. These are SIGNIFCANT numbers that would make it very difficult for a contender like the Packers to move him and incentivizes them not to. What about Post June 1st? Valid question, waiting until 6/2 or designating the trade as “6/2”, allows the Packers to push part of the cap hit out into 2022. So even though he’s not on the roster for 2022 they will still have dead cap of ~$17.2 million for moving his contract. This essentially is spreading out the hit, rather than incurring it all on year’s (2021) cap. If Rodgers remains on the team, plays out 2021, and then is moved in 2022, the hit would just be for the ~$17.2million. If Rodgers tries to force his issue Carson Palmer style, and says he is going to retire the situation becomes different. According to John Breech of CBS Sports, he would be forced to pay back $11.5 million for 2021 and 2022 ($23 million total) that the team has already doled out, in addition to that the team may look to recoup all or part of the $6.8 million in bonus paid to him in March. This would be a hefty sum for a player who may not be truly committed to retiring.
Now that we know the money implications involved with moving Rodgers, what would an actual trade package look like? Its tough to say given A-Rod’s MVP stature. I’ve heard Daniel Jeremiah and Michael Lombardi both go on the record saying they would not want to be the guy who traded a 3-time MVP, first ballot hall-of-famer. Which I believe is true and makes it difficult. In a theoretical trade, the organization wants to get Max value for a current top 2 or 3 player in the league. The team receiving Rodgers is still going to view him as a 37-year-old QB. You see trades for guys like Jay Cutler (2 Firsts), or Carson Palmer (1 First and a Second), or Matt Stafford (2 firsts and Goff, essentially one First for Goff’s contract) and you would believe the conversation starts there. None of them players were close to coming off Rodgers most recent season though. I think a package of two Firsts, one second and/or a third, with one or two young players would be a good starting point for a team to offer up. I’m not a huge proponent of throwing in a QB because why in the world would you take another guy back to compete with the guy you drafted that started all this drama (Jordan Love)? For example, if the Raiders offered up two firsts, a third, and Darren Waller that would be a starting point. Most likely GB counters for more, but nonetheless a starting point. A Broncos package would start at, two firsts, a third, Surtain ll, and Juedy? Same here, I believe the Packers counter for more. A trade for the leagues “baddest man” would certain be ground-breaking and would set a precedent for QB trades in the future.
If you haven’t, I would recommend listening to Andrew Brandt’s podcast as he is a former agent and worked with Rodgers and the Packers and provides great insight. To wrap things up, I have gone on the record as saying that Green Bay won’t move Rodgers. I’m in agreeance that they can mend the relationship, they just need to sit down and air out their grievances. Some additional guaranteed money may need to be offered up as well, but I definitely believe that Rodgers can return to the Packers in 2021 and play at an MVP level. I don’t think Gute and company would trade the reigning MVP, due to his stature as a football player and the unknown of Jordan Love. I believe they would hold firm and force Rodgers to retire before it ever got that far. We can all guess as to what the organization is going to do next and what Aaron is thinking, but one thing is certain. It’s only May, so everyone better buckle up as this saga isn’t close to finished and there’s 4 more months before opening week in the NFL.
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