With the first wave of Free Agency expiring, it’s a good time to reflect on the signings we’ve seen from teams around the league. We’ll breakdown them down into categories: Best Value, Least Value, and highest upside. Small note before we get started, all numbers (unless mentioned otherwise in each summary) is based on the reported APY (Average value per year).
Best Value:
Best Value is fairly self-explanatory. This would qualify as the signing that is worth more than the money they paid. That means it could be a low money contract, that we expect a player to outplay. Or it could be a high money contact that we think the player is truly worth.
Justin Reid, Kansas City 3 years $31.5 Million: Justin Reid has been a very good player lost in obscurity in Houston but lost no more. The former Stanford product is taking a big step up the competitive ladder and moving to Kansas City to play with the perennial contenders in the Chiefs. The Chiefs allegedly never made an offer to Tyrann Mathieu, and now we know why. They chose the youth route with Reid only being 25-year-old, and while Honey Badger has been a huge piece of their defense Justin Reid a competent replacement. He has High, low capability and can be a big chess piece in the Steve Spagnuolo defense, and he is definitely better than the 14th highest Safety contract that he’s currently at.
Laken Tomlinson, New York Jets 3 years $40 Million: The Jets needed Offensive Line help, and Laken Tomlinson is a perfect fit in the Mike LaFleur offense. LaFleur, heralding from the Shanahan tree, snags the former 49er to help fill a huge hole in the middle of their offensive line. Tomlinson can step in day one and be huge factor in wide zone scheme that he’s seen success (75.9 PFF Grade in 2021) and this mean there is one less need headed into the draft for the New York Jets entering the 2022 Draft.
BJ Hill, Cincinnati Bengals 3 year $30 Million: A big part of the success Cincinnati saw in 2021 was due to their defensive front, and BJ Hill was part of rotation on the interior that finished 5th in rushing yards allowed in 2021. Hill is in his prime at 27 years of age, and $10 million APY is a number that is reasonable for aInterior Defensive Lineman that plays a big role.
JC Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers 5 year $82 Million: Originally, I didn’t like this deal as I thought the number was closer to $20 Million APY, but at $16 million you get arguably a top five corner in the league. With 25 Interceptions in four years and scheme versatility, he instantly improves a defense that already has Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel Jr. The Chargers are clearly all in, and just got possibly the best, most-flexible cover corner in the league and at the 7thhighest contract for CB’s it’s a steal.
Connor Williams, Miami Dolphins 2 years $14 Million: The Miami O-Line rebuild finally begins. They get the former Dallas Cowboy to help with the interior under Mike McDaniel. Williams is a solid addition, and had good year in Dallas, grading out above average at 76.1 via PFF. In the prime of his career at $7 million APY, this has big time value to come in and help right away for the Dolphins at their biggest need on either side of the ball.
Least Value:
Once again, least value is pretty self-explanatory. These are the contracts where teams ponied up more money than we believe the player should have commanded, based on their most recent or past years production.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars 4 Years $84 Million: $21 Million per year is absolutely astounding for Christian Kirk, who has recorded four Career 100 yard games, and has never eclipsed 1000 yards in a season. The contract is essentially only $18 million per year, with incentives to get to $21 million but that number is still too high. I don’t want to hear it about, “it’s only a 2 year deal, etc. etc.” It is still a huge contract. Don’t get me wrong, I like Christian Kirk, but his number should be closer to $10-15 million APY for me to sign off. Regardless of contract, he is going to be the WR1 in Doug Pederson’s offense and if there isn’t career-year production, Jaguar’s fans may riot.I could also include Zay Jones’ contract here, but I’ll save the Jaguar’s fans suffering for later.
Cedrick Wilson, Miami Dolphins Cedrick Wilson 3 years $22.8 Million: Something with the Wide receiver market this year, has teams feeling frisky. Cedrick Wilson the past few years has been the fourth Wide Receiver for the Cowboys behind Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cedee Lamb which is tough lineup to crack. With Michael Gallup missing extensive time in 2021, he was thrust into a larger role in which he complied 45 receptions (on 61 targets) for 602 yards and 6 TDs, on his way to a 73.8 PFF Grade. All numbers that are promising when considering the trajectory that puts him on (189 yards/2TDS in 2020, 46 yards/0TDs in 2019). Its fair to assume that, unless Miami makes a big splash in the draft, this makes Wilson WR2 behind Waddle. Based on his production last year and years prior, I don’t know if I’m ready to commit $7 million+ per year to a guy who has less than 70 career receptions in 3 years.
Foyesade Oluokun, Jacksonville Jaguars 3 years $45 Million:My apologies Jaguars fans, two players on this list isn’t fair. However, with great spending comes great risk. Oluokun is a very good player as he was top 5 in the league in tackles this past season, while being a lone bright spot on the Falcon defense. However, committing $15 million annually to an off-ball linebacker when there are other glaring needs at the forefront is something that I cannot get behind. I would rather have seen the Jaguars take a swing at LB in the draft in the middle rounds and commit this money to additional IOL help or just commit all this money to Marcus Williams.
Larry Ogunjobi, Chicago Bears 3 years $40.5 million:
Highest Upside:
Sidney Jones, Seattle Seahawks 1 year $4.4 million: This signing was big time “bet on myself” deal for Jones. Jones started 11 games for Seattle this past season and played above average (70.2 PFF Grade). To get a starting CB for only $4 million. That’s a steal in today’s NFL. Jones was a highly regarded prospect out of Washington, and if he can realize his ceiling this could be a big win this season for both Seattle and for Sidney Jones who should have every opportunity.
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins 2 years 12.6 Million: One thing we know about the Shanahan Wide-zone offense that Mike McDaniel runs, is that they love speed at running back. Chase Edmond is burner who had run 4.28 at the NFL Combine in the past. Trapped in a timeshare the last few years in Arizona, it appears as though he’ll get a chance to maximize his talents in South Beach under the tutelage of Mike McDaniel and co. ~$6 Million APY is not a small number for a running back, but if all holds true and Miami fixes their offensive line woes we could see a career year for the speedster. See the likes of 2019 Raheem Mostert, 2021 Elijah Mitchell, or 2018 Matt Breida (but better than them all).
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars 1 year $9 Million: Finally a Jacksonville deal that I understand. I thought the Jaguars would dip their toes in the Tight End market, and I would have attacked a more traditional tight end, but they end up getting the “big slot” or “split TE” threat. Engram has had a rocky road so far in his career. He’s been to the Pro Bowl once (controversial vote-in) and not lived up to his first-round hype, but still has been an average to above average chain mover in the pass game. If he reaches his potential and is a Vertical seam threat for Trevor Lawrence, he’ll be able to cash again next year while he’s still in his prime.
Mitch Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers 2 year $14 Million: Aahh, the first QB domino falls. By no means does this deal signal the long term future in Pittsburgh, but if the former Chicago Bear/Buffalo Bill is able to resurrect his career like some believe it will be a huge win for Pittsburgh. Worst case scenario, this is a stop-gap solution until they find the future of their franchise, best case they have starter for the next 5-10 years. Huge upside.
Jordan Whitehead, New York Jets 2 years 14.5 million: The Jets are very sneakily becoming one of my favorite teams. They needed safety help and were committed to not overpaying. They get a player that is possibly, one of the most versatile (took snaps at DL/LB/DB) at all levels. The best part is, he is only 25. He can be a cornerstone of the Salah defense, and bonus points for leaving everything he has on the field every game.
We’ll continue on as the next wave passes updating this list, so be sure to follow us for more updates!
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