Nothing on draft weekend turns heads more than when Roger Goodell approaches the podium and drops the bombshell “There has been a trade.” Networks across the country Flash TRADE across their screens, analysts are anxiously awaiting who made the trade, what is the compensation, who is the selection, and fans sit on the edge of their seat to see if it is their team who made the splash move to try and upgrade their roster with a big move on the biggest stage of the offseason. The question that has always intrigued me has been: is it better to trade up or down? I decided to do a deep dive into the first-round trades of the last five years to see the impact that has come from those trades, and to try answer the question of which option is better.
In the last five years there has been approximately 32 trades that involved exchanges of 1st round draft capital. I excluded players-for-picks, as that was one sided with draft capital (1st rounder in exchange for Bradford, eagles ended up using the pick to select Derek Barnett). Using the Trade Value Chart that was designed and released by Jimmy Johnson, we can assign value to each individual pick and determine gain and loss in terms of Draft capital per trade. Teams normally try to keep the net gain/loss at 0 or risk losing more than they gain, but on average teams trading back are receiving 8.1% more capital than the teams trading up.
This means that when you agree to a trade back you are gaining either more picks or higher value picks, than expected. For example, if you trade the first overall pick (3000pts) for the second overall pick (2600pts), you can expect to get a future 2nd round pick (~420pts) to incentivize you moving back. According to the data I found, the team trading back would gain an additional 8%. Using our example of moving from 1 to 2, rather than just getting a future 2nd, teams are gaining what would equate to an additional 3rd round pick (~240pts). In recap, one team is receiving the #1 overall selection (3000pts), and the other is receiving the 2nd overall selection, a future 2nd round pick, and (on average) at least either a current or future 3rd pick (total of 3240pts). Which all draftniks know that this is significantly more compensation as 3rd round picks are often impact players for teams within 1-3 years of the selection. Seems like a pretty good reason to trade back, right? More opportunities to get more good players!
The next piece of info I found very interesting, was the usage of trade backs to gain additional picks, to make additional trades. In 1st round trade down situations, approximately 86 picks were acquired during the last 5 years. Of these 86 picks, approximately 25.58% were used in another subsequent trade. I believe this is a very vital piece of info when discussing NFL Draft trades because when teams scout players, they have guys they deem “higher value” than others on their draft boards. Trading back and acquiring additional ammo that you may not have had previously, allows you to have flexibility to make a move when these high value players are available in thresholds that teams had not perceived them to be previously. If a team is drafting at 15 and wants to move up to 10 to get their guy, they are going to have to give up a king’s ransom that they may not have. However, if the same team decides not to trade up and at the 15th selection, they decide no players have value, they can trade back to 25-30 and net a bunch of additional picks. This would allow them to use these picks to move back up to selections in 20’s where they now have players available that fit their rankings on their draft board. Teams like the Green Bay Packers in 2018, or the Tennessee Titans in 2016 executed this style of trade netting additional future picks but remaining flexible to get players they thought were valuable (Jaire Alexander, Jack Conklin). Another piece of information that supports trading back!
Now what about the players selected using all these trade ups and trade backs? Many times, these selections are contingent on who is evaluating the talent and setting the big board. Better scouting and talent evaluation leads to more success picking. I calculated the percentage of players that were still on the team within 2 years of their selection (excluding 2020 due to obvious reasons) and 86.67% of players selected using picks after trading up in the first round were still on the team. While 90.24% of players selected using picks after trading back in the first round, remain on the team That percent difference is very small, but what is interesting to me about this is that even with the picks received in a trade back being later (generally), they are still sticking on the roster and contributing. The difference increases even after 3 years, with 70.83% of players selected in a trade up sticking to the roster, and 85.37% of players selected in trade backs staying with their team. This adds another additional layer that trading back is an attractive option knowing most of the time the players will be staying contributing longer on their rookie deals.
Next, I figured out the volume of quality players are being selected using both trade ups in the first round, and trade downs. Using Pro Football Reference’s website, I pulled stats of how many starts players had while on the team they were drafted by. Since this was stat that is volume based and I wanted to see how many starts you gain/lose each way I did not use percentages. Teams that traded up in the first, have gotten approximately 980 starts (of 1466 possible) out of the players selected using those picks. While teams that traded back in the first round have gotten approximately 1092 starts (of 1936 possible) out of players directly selected from these trades. That seems like a big difference at first glance that sways in favor of trading back, but when you consider that 11 more players are selected using trade downs in this sample, I think it shows the quality of players that are selected for trade ups and the contribution they are providing to the team. Teams trading back are gaining ~27% more players but are getting about 10% less starts from these players (56.40% compared to 66.85%).
Taking the quality discussion even a step further, I looked at how many of the players selected for both trade ups and downs made it to Pro Bowls the last 5 years. 9 out of 31 players that were selected in first round trade ups made a pro bowl (29.03%). While 4 out of 41 players selected directly as a result of a trade back were selected to Pro Bowls (9.75%). I understand that Pro Bowl voting is flawed, since it is a product of fan-voting and sometimes is a popularity contest. I will say however, that more times than not an average Pro Bowl player, is a greater player than an average starter. This validates that you are more likely to get a Pro Bowl Caliber player, trading up rather than trading back.
Now the piece of information I find most interesting about this study, how many front offices experienced a firing following a first-round trade up or trade down. Out of the trade first round trade backs the last 5 years, a GM or Coach was terminated (within two years of the trade) in 4 instances or 12.90% of the time. In first round trade ups, a GM or Coach was fired (within two years of the trade) in 9 instances or 29.03% of the time (if team made multiple trades that was followed by a firing, Browns, that was counted as 1 instance). That in my opinion is staggering! Of 31 first round trades in the last 5 years, 29.03% of front offices that trade up will experience some sort of termination within 2 years, and you are twice as likely to lose your job when trading up, then when trading back!
In the end, trading back to me seems to be the most effective option, if you are confident in your evaluation. Trading back is not always the flashiest option, but you gain additional capital that allows you to move up and down the board easily to get players that better fit your team later in the draft. Many times, these players many times have smaller cap hits that can help build out the rest of your roster and leave additional cap flexibility. However, if you’re a contender or a team that needs to make a big swing to capitalize on a window or save a GM/Coach’s job, then trading up could net you a high-quality player that your team needs. Or if there is a QB you deem a “franchise player” than you can use the trade up to get him (35% of all 1st round trade ups are for QB’s). Full warning, if your team is the one that is trading up the Organizational structure may look very different in the coming years! Either way trades have become a huge staple of Draft weekend and lets just hope your team makes that right move when its their time to execute.
Kommentare