Next up in our 2021 Fantasy Football preview is going to be running backs. Running backs many times are the backbone of most fantasy rosters, so a deep dive here is well worth it. As with all positions we will be previewing, our projections are based on standard scoring.
1. Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers
- First up in our rankings is no surprise here. McCaffery was hurt for most of 2020, but when healthy he showed the same type of production that earned him RB1 status. The former Stanford Cardinal put up 24.4 points per game in 2020, and 22.2 points per game in 2019. Projecting that over 17 games in 2021, with no clear back up to steal touches, leaves him as the number Fantasy Running back heading into 2021.
2. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
- If you were considering only rushing yards, Derrick Henry probably winds up next on our list, but since fantasy does not neither will we. Cook was a monster in 2020 averaging 21 points/game and only missed 1 contest. When healthy, he is capable of putting up explosive numbers like this week in and out. The keywords though are “when healthy.” The former Seminole has had trouble throughout his career being nicked up with nagging injuries. We’re betting on his upside though and in friendly Kubiak offense, we should see more of 2020 Dalvin Cook.
3. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
- It’s not reasonable to believe that a Running Back will eclipse 2000 yards in back-to-back seasons. However, if there was ever a man to do it, Derrick Henry is your guy. King Henry was top fantasy producer without receiving much receiving work, which leads us to believe in his upside even if he doesn’t approach the 2k threshold again. The Titans are clearly okay with running Henry as often as possible (24 rushes/game in 2020), and that alone can project him over 1500 yards if he averages above the Running Back Mendoza line (4.0/carry). We’ll buy as much Henry stock as there is available.
4. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
- The former number two overall pick in the NFL draft spent 2020 shelfed with an injury, but when healthy is the focal point of the Giant’s offense. With Wayne Gallman leaving town, there is no clear backup that can spell and provide the same spark Barkley does. Considering the hefty receiving load that Saquon garners as well (143 receptions in 2018 & 2019) 20-25 touches per game is not out of the question. If New York wants to see success behind Daniel Jones, running the offense through Saquon should be major factor and should help him project as a top 5 RB.
5. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
- Kamara has always been a dynamic option out of the Saints backfield and with the departure of Ingram, he has really been able to showcase his talent the last two years. Most recently in 2020 Kamara was able to post 1600+ scrimmage yards to combine with 21 Td’s. Latavius Murray has shown to take on some of the rushing role, but Kamara’s touches have been safe. Regardless of who is under center between Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston, one thing is clear. This is the Alvin Kamara show, and he is going to be their best friend. With an extra game this year, it should be a safe bet to see Kamara cross the 1600 scrimmage yard threshold again, with 15+ Td’s not out of the question either.
6. Deandre Swift, Detroit Lions
- The first surprise in our Top 10 comes with the Lions 2nd year back. After taking on a bigger role in the second half last year, and having high receiving upside, Swift could be primed for break out year in 2021. Detroit under Campbell really has prioritized the trenches and I think that will be reflected in the rushing attack. While the recent comments about newly acquired Jamal Williams are concerning, I still think the Lions will try to control games on the ground and take the pressure off of Jared Goff.
7. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
- Similar to Derrick Henry, Chubb does most of his damage on the ground. Albeit, not to the same clip as the reigning rushing champ but similar, nonetheless. Having Kareem Hunt in the same backfield stealing touches does limit him slightly, but Cleveland under Stefanski has proven that they prefer to be a run-first team to open up Baker Mayfield and the passing game. Cleveland also enters 2021 with one of the best rosters in the NFL, giving them a good shot to be leading most weeks. What better way to control the clock, with a lead, than run the ball with a workhorse like Nick Chubb?
8. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
- The former fifth round pick for Green Bay has been a pleasant surprise, and with Matt LaFleur coming to town and brining the Shannahan run-heavy-wide-zone scheme with him, Jones has really blossomed as a bonafide playmaker playing behind Aaron Rodgers. While the Rodgers drama should be monitored, as it could affect Jones’ upside. We still expect him to command a lion’s share of the touches out of the backfield. 2020 2nd rounder AJ Dillon could steal some work, but Aaron Jones’ ability to play wide as a receiver helps his case.
9. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
- I have Najee as RB9 but let me preface this by saying I will not be surprised if he finishes in the top 5. Pittsburgh struggled mightily, outside of 1 year with James Connor, to replace the production Leveon Bell brought to Steel City. Incumbent Benny Snell has shown no explosive ability (3.3 yards/carry in 2020) and Anthony McFarland failed to carve out a role in the open backfield last year. I expect Najee Harris to come in day 1 taking 20-25 touches a game as Matt Canada (Steelers OC) and company look to take pressure of the aging Roethlisberger. Najee is my early favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the year, and it will show in fantasy football this year.
10. Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys
- While Zeke has commanded the majority of backfield touches in Dallas, he has seen his production dip with 2020 being his least productive season yet (979 yards in 15 games). The emergence of Tony Pollard (especially in the pass game) is something to keep an eye on in Jerry World. However, with Zeke’s price tag and Dak Prescott returning to form, I fully expect him to receive a massive number of touches. Just don’t count on him to produce at a high clip like season’s past.
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