Our new offseason series is diving into our Fantasy Football preview. The first part of our Fantasy Football preview is going to be projecting the top 10 Qb's for fantasy football in 2021. Using stats from 2020 and earlier, below are the top Fantasy signal callers:
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
- Mahomes has been electric in his first years manning the Kansas City/Andy Reid, high-flying offense. With weapons like Tyreke Hill, Travis Kelce, and Mecole Hardman at his disposal its not hard to see why this has been the case. The Chiefs jettisoned a majority of their starting O-Line from recent title runs, but somehow may be even better upfront with the additions of Joe Thuney, Orlando Brown Jr., and others. QB1 definitely belongs to Mahomes in our book as he averaged 25.4 Fantasy points/game on 588 attempts. With the same staff at the helm, improved protection, and Patrick being healthy (offseason foot surgery) after being hampered for the last half of the season Patrick Mahomes should be priority #1 on your QB fantasy radar.
2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
- Dak Prescott, prior to injury in 2020, was on record setting pace in year 1 of the Mike McCarthy era in Dallas. He averaged 27.4 Fantasy Points/game and was leading the league in most QB volume stats through 5 games. I expect that trend to continue, mainly because if Dallas wants to be competitive everything will run through Dak. The major caveat here is the health of Prescott’s ankle. If he’s healthy, there’s an extremely good chance he returns to elite status.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- Lamar had a down year compared to his 2019 MVP campaign. But in terms of fantasy, he is still a top dog. He averaged 22.8 fantasy points/game last year and most of his production came at the end of the year (approximately 27 pts/game through the last 5). Ravens have ramped up the passing game adding Sammy Watkins and Rashad Bateman. Alejandro Villanueva should have no problem replacing Orlando Brown Jr, and with all-pro Ronnie Staley returning from injury the protection surrounding Lamar should help him return to MVP form where he had 3 less INTs and 10 more TDs than 2020 (27.7 fantasy points/game).
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
- Josh Allen had a breakout campaign in 2020, and I believe we can expect him to continue much of the similar trend in 2021. He retained his OC (Brian Daboll), and they bring back all starters except for John Brown. Who they ended up replacing with Emmanuel Sanders who is still a reliable target at his age. Allen averaged 25.3 fantasy points per game, while finishing in the top 6 for attempts, and top 5 in yards/attempt. All football fans that watched Buffalo in the playoffs as well know that their running game is something to be desired. We can realistically expect some regression, but the talent around Allen and his running ability (~90 points) should keep him in the top 5 fantasy QB consideration.
5. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
- prior to Injury in 2020, Murray was in discussion as a possible MVP candidate while the Cardinals surged. As the season progressed, Arizona slipped to 8-8 missing the playoffs and Murray dropped out of MVP consideration. He still posted some gaudy numbers as he averaged 24.8 fantasy points/game, throwing for just under 4000 yards and 26 passing TDs, all while running for 819 yards and 11 TDs. Arizona continues to build around him as they brought in AJ Green to replace the still unsigned/retired? Larry Fitzgerald. The defense will look to be improved which as well should help put Kyler in more favorable positions. I would bet on seeing early 2020 Kyler this season, and him finishing as a top 5 fantasy QB if he plays 17 games.
6. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
- 2020 for Russell was similar to Murray that it was a “tale of two Wilson’s.” Russell was electric the first 8 weeks throwing for over 300 yards five out of eight tries. He also eclipsed 3+ touchdowns six out of eight chances. But letting Russ cook showed to be to his own detriment as he finished weeks 8-17 throwing for over 300 yards zero times, and topping 3+ TDs just once. Russ finished the year averaging 23.3 points/game, but questions about his O-Line and late season struggles have me slightly bear-ish on him. He’s still top 10 for fantasy, and his rushing threat is always a plus (~63 points), but QB6 for me is his ceiling.
7. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
- The reigning MVP is coming off the most efficient season in Quarterback history. Matt Lafleur’s offense has also been a shot in the arm for the future hall-of-famer as well. While the season may end up being elsewhere than GB, I’ll bet he ends up in title town in 2021. At 37 years old, Rodgers still posted 4299 yards and 48 TDs, with only 5 (?!?) INTs, ending up with 24.2 points/game. He’s not quite the threat he once was running (~30), but his passing alone keeps him top 10. It’s not fair to think he’ll have the most efficient season again in 2021, especially at 38 years old. But I bet he can be a top 7 fantasy QB still, in Green Bay or elsewhere.
8. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- TB12 once again defied all odds and brought a Lombardi back to Tampa Bay. The Bucs responded by bringing back all major contributors (all 22 starters) in addition to some depth rookies (Robert Hainsey, Joe Tryon) and a pass catching back in Gio Bernard. Tom has admitted he came out the gate slow learning the new system but finished the year by throwing for 340+ yards and 3+ TDs on 4/6 last games. He averaged 21.9 points/game, and 24.3/game over the last 7 weeks. In addition, he was second in the league in attempts (610) which means the opportunity will be there. He doesn’t stretch the field as much as he did in his early days, but top 10 is definitely a lock for Tompa Bay.
9. Matt Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
- After spending g his entire career with the middling Detroit Lions, Stafford gets his chance to show what he’s got as he joins the high powered McVay offense. Stafford averaged 16.9 points/game with the Lions in 2020, and if the “McVay Effect” holds true we should see a bump in production. Couple that with the fact that Goff averaged 16.9 points as well, and Stafford averages ~1 more yard per throw, that’s a perfect storm to cross the 20 points per game threshold.
10. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
- there’s popular believe around the league that Matt Ryan is washed and past his prime. This could be the case but let me make a defense for him to be a top 10 fantasy QB in 2021. Ryan led the NFL in attempts in 2020, while averaging 18.2 fantasy points/game. While Ryan will more than likely see less attempts, Arthur Smith offenses are generally more efficient due to their balance with the run game. QBs under a Smith led offense have seen a 22% bump in fantasy output (Tannehill in Tennessee). combine that with the previously mentioned fact that Ryan can still sling it around the yard, Matty-Ice should be within the top 10 fantasy signal callers in 2021.
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