The Last Dance?

Were taking a break from our usual Divisional Preview series, to analyze the cataclysimic news in the NFL world. That is the Aaron Rodger’s situation. He has returned to camp, settling differences for the short term, to help Green Bay compete one last time before re-evaluating his stance with the team. This truly could be, a “one last dance” situation unfolding in front of our eyes.

The first major point we can address is the Rodgers contract situation. Essentially, the agreement that has been put in place with the front office is that the Rodger’s 2023 contract year is a “voidable” year. This means that after the 2022 season, the contract is automatically terminated/voided. That means he is under contract for the 2021 and 2022 season. Part of the agreement that was made however, is that the Front Office alongside Rodgers will re-evaluate the situation after 2021. This means that they will agree to trade him if that is what he decides or extend him further if they agree to that. This is a dicey situation as multiple outlets (Ian Rapaport, Adam Schefter, etc.) have made this seem as though it is a “gentleman’s agreement” and not in writing. I would imagine the Green Bay front office would do right by a Mount Rushmore player and honor their word, but it is worth noting, nonetheless. There has also been a restructure of his deal to open up cap space, but the exact number has not yet been reportEd.

With said cap space opening up, it leaves the team with more flexibility to upgrade the roster which has been another important contingency for Rodgers return. He has requested more “say” in roster decisions to do right by his teammates, and previous franchise icons that he believed to be jettisoned prematurely. With this extra spot at the table, he has already made his intentions known as the team almost immediately agreed to a trade in which former Packer Wide Receiver Randall Cobb returns to Green Bay. Cobb is notably a close friend to Aaron Rodgers, and was a staple in the organization during the 2010’s. Coincidently (wink, wink), after the Rodgers news broke, news appeared that Davante Adams was once again open to restarting contract extension talks with the team. It is believed the new cap space can help facilitate a deal to keep the All-Pro receiver in town long term.

Now that we know the money situation, and Rodgers adamancy do right by his teammates by assisting in roster moves, the only question left is “whats next?” The thought is Rodgers will return to the team business as usual for 2021, and play at a high level. After the 2021 season the Packer’s brass and A-Rod will sit down and discuss their options moving forward, based upon how the season went and if they continued to meet his expectations he could stay. If Rodgers is still displeased, or believes it is time to partways, as previously mentioned there is a mutual agreement to part ways via trade, since he has 1 year left on his deal. Since his deal was restructured and the 2023 year is now voided, my understanding is that this would mean the dead cap for both years accelerates and would be combined to be ~$20 million. That number is much more manageable than the $38 million the team would have suffered this year via a trade. Having Aaron in the building for a full year is a huge advantage over trying to bring him back from retirement, which was something he seriously contemplated. 2022 would be year three for Jordan Love and would be a pivotal point in his career. If all goes as expected, Love would have yet to play a snap for the green and gold, and the team would have to make a decision on whether to exercise his fifth year option with very sparing game film to go off of.

This is me just speculating, but a divorce between Rodgers and the Packers after the 2021 season is and always has been the most obvious solution. The cap hit is much more manageable, Love will have had time under his belt to learn how to be a pro behind one of the best ever and would be ready to take the reigns in his third year before the team makes a decision on his future, and Rodgers could either ride off into the sunset (retirement), or now that the groundwork has been laid he could take his talents elsewhere. The Packers would still have a year left on his deal, so they could get compensation back for him that would be greater than a compensatory pick, Rodgers picks his destination to finish his career, and LaFleur and company get to see what Love can do as a QB in 2022. Everyone wins, except maybe the Green Bay fans, who would lose a fan favorite and Titletown icon for the last ~17 years. There is one scenario, that could make things interesting. If Rodgers repeats as MVP, he enters hallowed territory with Peyton Manning being the only other player to do so. In this scenario, if the front office meets all the concessions made by Rodgers, I think they would be hard-pressed to let him walk with him playing at such an elite level.

Regardless of what the future holds, this saga is far from over. How the table has been set all offseason, and with Rodgers now reporting, there is an unsettling calm cast over all Packers fans. The fan base still remains divided, and the dynamic moving forward is very unnerving. One thing though remains certain, even after a dejected interview we will see #12 donning the traditional Green Bay attire. And if history has shown us anything, its that when Aaron Rodgers plays with a chip on his shoulder the rest of the league should be on notice. 2021 will be no different.