On a slow Friday, Miami turned the football world on its head with huge trade news. The Dolphins first traded with the 49ers, sending San Francisco the 3rd pick in this year’s draft, while getting back the 49ers 1st round pick (12th pick) in this draft, a first-round pick in 2022’s and 2023’s drafts, and a 3rd round compensatory selection in 2022. Miami wasn’t done there though. After receiving a gargantuan haul, they made their move to get back to #6, as they traded with Philadelphia to put themselves squarely back in the middle of the top 10. Miami sent the 12th pick of 2021 (from San Francisco), their own 1st round pick from 2022, and a 4th round pick (123 overall) this year; in exchange for the Eagles 6th pick.
Now that the details are hashed out that leaves us asking, who won? When you peel back the layers of this trade, you can see what the teams involved are thinking. For the 49ers, this sends the message that they wanted to get “their QB.” You don’t give up three 1st round selections to select a TE or WR. This signals that they are okay with which ever QB is remaining of the big three on their board (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, ?). They also don’t make this trade with calling the Jets to see the price for #2 first, my guess is the Jets said it’s not for sale after getting a first-hand look at BYU’s superstar, Zach Wilson. The real question is, who is their third ranked QB? I always believe that giving up future picks can be extremely risky, especially two years out. If the 49ers get their Franchise QB, nobody bats an eye and mostly like they receive high praise for the trade (see Kansas City with Mahomes or Houston with Watson). I’d give the trade about a B-.
For Miami, talk all over the league was that they were looking to move back. They had Tua in hand, or a whole arsenal of pick they could use to get Watson. They were not necessarily in the QB conversation. So why not capitalize on the QB heavy draft? They ended +1 in the first-round picks column after both trades, and most likely will have their selection of the 1st or 2nd best pass catcher in this draft, or the best O-Lineman. Where I think the 6th pick gets very interesting is, what if the 4th QB on the board is still there at 6? Whether its Justin Fields (criminal), Trey Lance (plausible), Zach Wilson (doubt it), or Mac Jones (likely) there are teams out there like the Panthers, Patriots, and Washington that would look to mortgage the entire farm to get in range of these guys. Miami has the ammo to come back up from 15 (Patriots) or 19 (Washington) why not stack your drafts even more for the next two years? Miami has phenomenal options for themselves in this draft, not only to add an impact player but to right the ship in the coming years. A++
I was a big fan of the trade for Philadelphia as well. After going 4-11-1 last year, the Eagles have low expectations and after gutting most of the roster I believe this will be more of a rebuilding year. What helps speed a rebuild up? Getting multiple first round picks. Very similar to what the Lion’s did in the Goff trade, the Eagles traded back and got themselves additional draft capital moving forward. With four, most likely five, QB’s going in the top 10 it will push some additional talent down the board. Whether that’s one of the top 3 WR’s (Smith or Waddle), or a defensive talent (Micah Parsons, Pat Surtain ii, or Jaycee Horn) they still can get a top talent at 12 while helping build for their future. My report card would show an A for the city of brotherly love.
Who are the losers than? Carolina, New England, Washington, and any other QB-hungry team are being left at the dance in this situation. This creates a situation where, of the top 5 QB’s, only 1 could be remaining outside of the top 6. With teams on the fence at QB (Falcons, Lions) it could be even less. This creates a situation where these teams have to make big jumps (approximately 10 spots for the Patriots, 12-13 for the Redskins) or trade with an unlikely partner, such as the rival Falcons and Panthers. All of these options are going to cost additional draft capital as well. Houston gave up two first round picks to get to 12 (from 25). Creeping into the top 10 is going to cost even more. Fan bases for these teams should be a little apprehensive for the QB room moving forward.
Either way, all of this trade madness just leads us further down the road and shows us that this truly is a wild time in the NFL. With it being smokescreen season it’s always a breath of fresh air when a team shows their hand, even if it’s just for a second or two, to give their fanbases a peak behind the curtain as to what their future holds.
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