Moving to the next division on the list, we’ll be previewing the AFC East. The East had representation in the AFC title game, coming up short to the Chiefs. Thought to be one of the most improved divisions in football, we’ll dive in and preview last year’s finish, along with overviews and predictions:
2020 Final Standings:
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Miami Dolphins
3. New England Patriots
4. New York Jets
2021 Outlook:
Buffalo Bills:
The number one storyline out of Buffalo, other than the AFC East Crown, is the emergence of Josh Allen. There were many doubters of the former Wyoming Cowboy, and he proved them all wrong and faulted himself into all top 5 QB conversations. He led there revitalized offense to 2nd in both scoring and yardage, while the defense remained rock solid (as it has been under McDermott) ranking 16th in scoring and 14th in yardage. They decided to approach the offseason with a run-it-back approach, bringing back 21 of 22 starters. John Brown was the loan starter not returning, with the team replacing him with Emmanuel Sanders. They also fortified Defensive line depth through the draft by taking Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham. The biggest move of the offseason may have been retaining the up and coming Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll, who will look to help Josh Allen along his meteoric rise. I fully expect Buffalo to be competitive and remain atop the AFC East.
Miami Dolphins:
Miami had a big time rebound year in 2020, notching double digit wins. However, they narrowly missed the playoffs, despite the expanded field. Many believed Head Coach Brian Flores, worthy of Coach of the Year consideration. Which is hardware he’ll look to bring home in 2021. Both sides of the ball were improved with the offense notching 15th in scoring and 22nd in yardage for rankings, and the defense becoming a top unit ranking 6th in scoring and 20th in yardage. After making the move to Tua midseason, it will be his job the full year with Fitzpatrick moving over to the Washington Football Team. The offense added key weapons Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to help with Tua’s sophomore campaign. Matt Skura was the only offensive line addition, as they look to gain some additional continuity there. As mentioned, their defense ranked very high in 2020, namely turnovers (1st in the league). Bringing back most of the unit, but conversely they parted with Kyle Van Noy, Bobby McCain, and Davon Godchaux. Some younger defensive additions in EDGE Jaylen Phillips and Safety Jevon Holland will help with those losses. Additional veteran pieces in CB Justin Coleman, LB BenardrickMcKinney, S Eric Rowe, and CB Jason McCourty will look to help create additional depth at important positions. Monitoring the Xavien Howard possible holdout is also an important storyline. As a whole, the team will look to build on a positive 2020 season, and should be extremely competitive in the AFC in 2021 for Flores’ 3rd spell.
New England Patriots:
After a disappointing season in 2021 where Patriot fans watched jettisoned QB Tom Brady win a Super Bowl, the fanbase witnessed Future Hall of Fame Coach/GM Bill Belichick turn the tables on a normal offseason and dole out serious cash to rebuild both sides of the ball. The offense finished 2021 a paltry 27th in scoring and yardage, with the defense finishing a respectable 7th in scoring and 15th in yardage. The offense brought back Cam Newton, and added Mac Jones via the draft to compete. The pass catcher group has long been one of the worst in the league, as the team added WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Jonnu Smith, and TE Hunter Henry to help improve the passing game. Defensively they also had a laundry list of additions, with impact guys being EDGE Matthew Judon, EDGE/LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Donte Hightower (former COVID opt out) and Rookie IDL Christian Barmore. Honestly, we could take up this whole piece discussing the New England offseason just due to the sheer number of offseason additions. However, the Patriots should be able to field a much better and competitive team in 2021 and have more familiar success.
New York Jets:
After another absimal season underneath Adam Gase, the New York Jets hit reset (again) and hired Robert Salah the successful former DC from the 49ers. The Jets finished with the second worst record, and their team rankings showed it coming in 32nd in both scoring and yardage on offense, and 26th in scoring and 24th in yardage on defense. Second year GM Joe Douglas traded former high pick Sam Darnold to the Panthers for draft capital, but didn’t stop there. They select BYU QB Zach Wilson second overall, while adding OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, WR Elijah Moore, and RB Michael Carter all through the draft. In addition, he added EDGE Carl Lawson, OT Morgan Moses, and WR Corey Davis via free agency to help add some Veteran talent. The cupboard was very bare in 2020, but this churned roster should provide much better results as the rebuild has begun and Zach Wilson looks to lead the franchise in the right direction starting in 2021.
2021 Prediction:
1. Buffalo Bills, 16-1
2. Miami Dolphins, 14-3
3. New England Patriots, 12-5
4. New York Jets, 3-14
After our simulation, I was surprised to see the Bills take home the #1 seed. However they have very few holes and could look to be dominant early and often. Maybe not 16 wins good, but very good nonetheless. Miami also made a big time leap and finish with the second most wins in the AFC. New England rebounds and returns to the post season after making huge offseason splashes. While New York makes great strides, but still is in the early stages of their rebuild. Overall, the AFC East is stacked and we are projecting great things with the division having 3 playoff teams.
2021 Award Predictions:
MVP/Offensive Player of the Year: Josh Allen
Defensive Player of the Year: Donta Hightower
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Zach Wilson
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jaylon Phillips
Comeback Player of the year: CJ Mosely
If Buffalo wins 16 games, Josh Allen will be the AFC East MVP and quite possibly the overall MVP, that gives him the edge for the offensive player of the year as well. With the Hightower coming back, the Patriots will look to lean on their defense and he is the leader there. With the Offensive Rookie awards normally favoring QB’s, and Zach Wilson (barring injury) likely to start all the games for the Jets, he is the leader in the East for ROY. Jaylon Phillips will have every opportunity to stand out for the Flores defense and could look to win the overall Defensive ROY. CJ Mosley after having a knee injury in 2019, and an opt out season in 2020, recovers and leads a Salah Defense that is much improved in 2021.
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