What will the landscape of the 2021 season look like? Our next series will be a preview of each division. We will dive into how the division finished out in 2020 in terms of record, key additions, and losses for each team, and predict how we think they end up. At the end of each preview, we will hand out some predictive awards: Division MVP, Rookie of the year, Comeback player of the year, and most improved. First up the AFC West:
2020 final standings:
1. Kansas City
2. Las Vegas Raiders
3. Los Angeles Chargers
4. Denver Broncos
2021 Outlook:
Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City chiefs, to the surprise of no one, controlled the AFC West and finished with the number one overall seed in AFC. Patrick Mahomes was hobbled for the late season run, which may have limited their late season run, but they still operated at a high-level finishing 6th in points scored and 1st in yards. The defense showed the ability to hold teams off at times and finished middle of the pack at 10th in points scored against and 16th in yards allowed. They seemed to identify the problem being the ravaged offensive line, and they did a complete overhaul brining in top Guard Joe Thuney and former Pro Bowler Kyle Long, trading for Orlando Brown Jr., and drafting Creed Humphrey. They returned core pieces of the defense, mainly parting ways with Bashaud Breeland. However,the high-risk additions of Mike Hughes and Deandre Baker (last year) can hopefully relieve some of the production lost. Mecole Hardman should be expected to take a big leap replacing Sammy Watkins, and the running game will be the Clyde Edwards-Helaire show. Kansas City looks to be completely reloaded, and with a healthy Mahomes will be top team again in 2021.
Las Vegas Raiders: Jon Gruden has seen an improvement in his team’s record each year, albeit it was only one game in 2020. The team moved to Vegas this past season and has big expectations, as the exponential growth expected under the coach/gm duo of Gruden/Mayock has not been fulfilled. Their offseason has not set them on the right path to success either. They turned over their offensive line, which was a respectable unit, that helped protect Derek Carr and paved the way for Josh Jacobs allowing them to finish 10th in points scored and 6th in yards gained on offense. Their pass catchers, outside of Darren Waller, have left some to be desired and will be a key group to watch in 2021 with former early selections of Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards expected to fill large roles. On defense, there has always been a gap when compared to defense as the unit finished 30th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed. They have added a plethora of safeties through the draft and signed Karl Joseph after releasing Lamarcus Joyner. They are still searching for a pass rusher opposite Max Crosby, as they signed Yannick Ngakoue and drafted Malcom Koonce. I expect the Raiders to take a step back in 2021 after gutting one of their team’s strength, and fans will question ownership’s decision to dole out a 10-year contract to Gruden. Additions of players like Kenyan Drake, Willie Snead, and Solomon Thomas are not guys that move the needle for me, and I question where this roster is moving forward.
Los Angles Chargers: The future is bright for the Chargers, mainly due to the play of last year’s rookie QB, Justin Herbert. He had an elite Rookie year that was one for the record books, but after they failed to close out games Anthony Lynn was let go as head coach. The offense ended up finishing 18th in points scored and 9th in yards gained, even with one of the worst offensive lines in football and Austin Ekeler missing a majority of the season. On defense, they return their core minus Melvin Ingram. The added Asante Samuel Jr. through the draft, and with Derwin James healthy they will look to be much improved here as well, as they finished 23rd in points allowed and 10th in yards allowed. To help resolve protection issues, they brought in Corey Linsley via free agency and draft Rashawn Slater in the first round. Brandon Staley also brings leadership and a defensive coaching pedigree that can help this ascending roster take the next step. As long as Justin Herbert doesn’t regress significantly, if at all, this is a loaded roster looking to compete with KC.
Denver Broncos: Although Denver picked #9 in the draft, and finished 4th in the AFC West, they are widely believed to have one of the best rosters in the NFL. They have been floundering at QB for the last two years with Drew Lock at the helm and finished 28th in points scored and 23rd in yards gained. Their defense is widely believed to be one of the best in the league but finished 2020 25th in points allowed and 21st in yards allowedwith the absence of Von Miller. Fangio/Paton/and Co. doubled down on said defense and signed Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller, while drafting Patrick Surtain ll, making a strength a strength. The offense is also widely improved with the return of Courtland Sutton, adding Javonte Williams and Quinn Meinerz via the NFL Draft. Its widely believed that any success Denver is seeking is contingent upon their QB debacle, and I would agree with that sentiment. They traded a late round pick for Journeyman Teddy Bridgewater, to come in and compete with Drew Lock or outright win the job. If they can field an even moderately competent signal caller, this Denver team has very real potential to win 10+ games in 2021.
Standings/Record Prediction:
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 13-4
2. Denver Broncos, 11-6
3. Los Angeles Chargers, 10-6
4. Las Vegas Raiders, 2-15
Chiefs have the best route to being repeat champs in the West, and will look to continue their recent dominance. Broncos see the biggest jump in record, with or without the average QB play. Chargers finish 3rd in what shakes out to be a tough conference, but a respectable finish for a rookie Head Coach. The Raiders finish at the bottom, and near the bottom of the entire league. Overall, the division does not have any huge surprises in this prediction, other than the very ungraceful fall of the Mark Davis’ Raiders.
2021 AFC West Awards:
MVP: Patrick Mahomes
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Javonte Williams
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Asante Samuel Jr.
Comeback Player of the year: Derwin James
Most Improved: Mecole Hardman
Mahomes is the betting favorite to win the OVERALL MVP right now, having already won it once and Kansas City being as good as they are, he is our pick as the preseason AFC West MVP. With not a lot of impact rookies in this division I think the ROY race could be very narrow. Javonte Williams should compete early in the year for RB1 duties in Denver, and Asante Samuel Jr. will see a lot of snaps on a top defense that is very friendly to young corners (see Darius Williams in 2020). Derwin James, similarly, will have a jackknife role and return to prominence with his new health as well. Brandon Staley will get the best out of his DB’s! Lastly, most improved in the West will be Mecole Hardman. The departure of Sammy Watkins has vacated additional targets, and Hardman could be one of the main benefactors. Their offense loves speed, and he rivals Tyreke. Its time for him to step up and demote older vets like Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson.
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